On September 22, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Forum of the IDF General Staff and stated “we need to destroy the Iranian axis, and this is within our means. This is what stands before us in the coming year, which could be a historic year for the security of Israel.” Clearly, Netanyahu doesn’t seem to think the “12 day war” between Iran, Israel and the United States should stay at 12 days.
But whether Netanyahu succeeds or not depends on several key factors that aren’t yet fully determined.
U.S. President Donald Trump signs the Israeli Knesset guest book on October 13, 2025. Photo via The White House / Wikimedia.
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How much damage did Iran do?
The initial impression of the 12 day war was one of Israeli tactical brilliance, leading to heavy Iranian losses. Yet less appreciated is that Iran recovered from its initial shock and began to inflict significant blows in the heart of Israel. Given extensive Israeli military censorship, the full story of that damage may not have been fully told.
Regardless, we know that Iran’s retaliation was on another level from what Israel has experienced in recent years. According to ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data), Iran’s missile retaliation over the course of the 12 days resulted in “at least 36 direct hits,” excluding those that impacted in open areas, killing 28 people and resulting in 3,000 injuries. By contrast, ACLED notes “the sophistication of Iran’s missile arsenal posed a more lethal threat to Israel during these 12 days than in any previous phases since the start of the Gaza war: Rocket, missile, and drone fire from Gaza, Lebanon, and Yemen over more than 600 days resulted in just over 40 Israeli civilian deaths and over 3,000 injuries.” Some of the strikes may have struck near sensitive Israeli defense facilities, according to some reports.
Iran also was able to adapt to Israel’s multilayered missile defense shield, proving increasingly adept at frustrating it and landing strikes toward the end of the conflict. The Wall Street Journal, citing data from Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), noted in the first half of the conflict, 8% of Iran’s missiles slipped through Israel’s defenses. By the second half of the war, 16% got past Israel’s interceptors. The second-to-last day of the war also saw Iran land its most hits, according to the data, where 10 of 27 Iranian missiles resulted in direct strikes. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft added some color to this narrative, noting that Iran fired fewer missiles later in the war but found more success, deploying cyber attacks to disrupt Israel’s defenses in critical seconds to create gaps for the missiles.
The June war took place amid near-ideal circumstances for Israel, with the Israeli attack catching Iran flat-footed and doing damage to Iran’s ability to defend itself and launch reprisals. Yet, because Iran demonstrated its ability to pierce Israel’s missile defenses, Israel would have to be ready for significant reprisals in any relaunch of the war. This poses a not insignificant check on further aggression.
Have Iran and Israel reloaded?
Israel and Iran are each taking significant steps to prepare for a new round of fighting, and gain any edge that could be advantageous both to deter attack and to potentially deliver more severe blows. This race for an edge could be decisive for decisionmakers determining whether, and when, to attack.
This week, Iranian media offered an inside look at an IRGC missile base, featuring video of apparently new and repaired launchers equipped with medium-range ballistic missiles. The message was clear - while Israel took its best shot in June, including knocking out some launchers, Iran is reloading for another round and will not be caught unprepared again. With Russia and China rejecting the validity of the restoration of UN sanctions, which include an arms embargo, Tehran is likely pushing hard for tangible military support via arms shipments that can put Iran on better footing for any resumption of war.
Israel, as well, is undoubtedly planning new steps for the next phase of the war. This likely includes steps to replenish its missile defenses, particularly after the U.S. expended nearly a quarter of its global THAAD missile interceptors throughout the course of the June war.
At the outset of its war, Israel also executed sabotage operations to take Iranian air defenses offline, which were reportedly conducted via cells it had recruited to launch drones from within Iranian soil. These covert actions took key Iranian air defenses offline, helping ensure Israel was able to deliver heavy blows in the opening days of the war. Yet such clandestine operations take a long time to execute and pull off, and it is not clear if they can be replicated in the short and medium term, particularly now that Iran is seeking to address its own internal security vulnerabilities. As Danny Citrinowicz warned, “Israel is unlikely to enjoy such ideal conditions in the next round. Whether Iran strikes first out of miscalculation or Israel launches another attack, Iran’s readiness will be on a different level.”
Would Trump stop Netanyahu from attacking?
If Israel is not deterred by the damage Iran inflicted in June, and if Israel perceives it has the upper hand for another strike, the key question will be whether President Trump allows an attack to go forward. In the lead-up to the war in June, President Trump shifted from a red light on war to a green light for Netanyahu. That led down a path wherein President Trump ordered strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities before declaring success and quickly pivoting to a ceasefire.
Despite becoming the first President not to balk at Israeli pressure to strike Iranian soil directly, Trump does not seem overly eager to engage in another round of war with Iran. While he has hinted at the possibility of strikes if Iran moved to weaponize its nuclear program, he has dismissed claims that Iran is doing so and suggested in his remarks to the Israeli Knesset that a peace agreement with Iran would be “nice.” Moreover, Trump has fashioned himself - regardless of the validity - as a President that prioritizes peace. He has also shown that he can rein in Netanyahu when he goes too far. It took less than one month between Netanyahu ordering a strike targeting Hamas mediators in Qatar for President Trump to hammer out a ceasefire that has tamped down the violence in Gaza.
President Trump remains the indisputable key player in the Iran nuclear standoff, as the U.S. possesses both the weapons capable of damaging Iran’s most hardened sites and the leverage to force Israel to back down on any aggression. Just as Trump forced Netanyahu to end the war at 12 days, he can likely block or end any resumption of the war by withholding his support. Yet Netanyahu knows he also maneuvered Trump into an Iran war one time before, and may think he can do so again. Whether he is able to is anyone’s guess in these tense times.