Despite an active ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic back-channels, the conflict between the United States and Iran remains dangerously unresolved. The gap between the two sides’ positions has widened sharply in recent days, and multiple indicators suggest that a return to open warfare cannot be ruled out. Talks are stalled, military posturing continues on both sides, and the global economic fallout — particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — is accelerating at a pace that is alarming international markets and governments alike.