Despite an active ceasefire and ongoing diplomatic back-channels, the conflict between the United States and Iran remains dangerously unresolved. The gap between the two sides’ positions has widened sharply in recent days, and multiple indicators suggest that a return to open warfare cannot be ruled out. Talks are stalled, military posturing continues on both sides, and the global economic fallout — particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — is accelerating at a pace that is alarming international markets and governments alike.
Trump portrayed a continued impasse, with ongoing negotiations continuing via intermediaries. Speaking to reporters as he departed the White House for Florida, Trump acknowledged that Iran had recently held “talks” with the United States, but stated bluntly that he was not satisfied with what Tehran was offering. He described Iran’s leadership as deeply divided, saying its officials “argue with each other and then come back, each saying something different,” adding: “They are confused. Frankly, their country has been destroyed.”
Iran, for its part, submitted a new peace proposal to Pakistan - its officially designated mediator - on Thursday evening. The full contents of this renewed proposal have not been officially disclosed by either side. Earlier this week, Al-Mayadeen reported that Iran’s framework included three phases: an end to the war, negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear talks last. However, it is unclear whether the latest proposal submitted through Pakistan retains the same terms or reflects revised positions.
After Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s visit to Russia, Presidents Putin and Trump held a phone call, reportedly lasting over one and a half hours according to Russian state media TASS. Putin explicitly warned that a U.S. ground operation in Iran would be “completely unacceptable and dangerous,” not only for Iran and its neighbors but for the entire international community. Putin also expressed support for Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire, calling it the right move, and reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to finding a peaceful diplomatic resolution to the crisis.
Today marks 60 days since President Trump formally notified Congress of U.S. military operations against Iran, which began on February 28 in coordination with Israel. Under the War Powers Resolution, the president is required to terminate unauthorized military operations within 60 days unless Congress authorizes their continuation. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth argued that the 60-day clock has been paused by the ceasefire, a position Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and legal scholars have sharply rejected, pointing to continued hostilities via implementation of a blockade on Iran. Trump himself has dismissed the War Powers Resolution entirely, calling it unconstitutional and noting that no president has ever complied with it.
Adding to concerns, Axios reported that Trump received new military strike plans for Iran on Thursday, briefed by General Brad Cooper, commander of U.S. Central Command. IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Majid Mousavi warned in response that any U.S. attack, even limited, would trigger “prolonged and painful strikes” on American positions throughout the region, including U.S. warships. Iran’s air defense systems were activated over Tehran late Thursday and again on Friday, with IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency reporting that the systems were engaged against reconnaissance drones and UAVs operating over the capital for approximately 20 minutes.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes, remains one of the most consequential dimensions of this conflict. Brent crude oil prices reached $119.80 per barrel, the highest level in four years, with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warning the next stop could be $140 per barrel. Iran has stated it will not reopen the strait until the U.S. lifts its naval blockade of Iranian ports, and the acting Iranian Defense Minister confirmed that commercial shipping will resume only after the war ends.
In response, Washington is reportedly assembling a new international coalition called the “Freedom of Navigation Framework” to restore shipping through the strait. France’s Foreign Minister described the U.S. initiative as complementary to a separate Franco-British maritime mission that has already engaged more than 50 countries. The UAE’s senior presidential advisor Anwar Gargash stated that any unilateral Iranian assurances about the strait cannot be trusted, citing Iran’s conduct during the conflict. Iran’s Ambassador to India offered a notable exception, indicating that vessels from countries not involved in the war may pass freely, suggesting Tehran is using maritime access as a targeted geopolitical leverage tool rather than a blanket blockade. The economic ripple effects are severe for the world economy and for Iran alike. Inside Iran, the U.S. dollar surged from 150,000 to 180,000 Iranian tomans, sharply accelerating inflation and deepening the economic hardship facing ordinary citizens.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an intensified economic pressure campaign, including the designation of 35 entities and individuals linked to Iran’s shadow banking network, which Washington says has facilitated tens of billions of dollars in sanctions-evading transactions. The Treasury further warned that any company providing services to Iranian airlines - including fueling, catering, or maintenance - faces secondary U.S. sanctions.
On the Israeli front, Defense Minister Israel Katz indicated that Israel may “soon be compelled to act again against Iran” to prevent the Islamic Republic from reconstituting as a threat, framing the ongoing campaign as a coordinated effort between Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu to permanently eliminate the Iranian threat to the region.
The current situation is defined by a ceasefire that neither side fully trusts, diplomatic proposals that have not been met with direct engagement, and military planning that continues on both sides. The fundamental disagreement remains irreconcilable in the short term: the United States demands a comprehensive end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions before any durable settlement; Iran insists on ending the war first and sequencing nuclear talks for later. With the War Powers clock expired, new U.S. strike plans reportedly on the president’s desk, IRGC air defenses active over Tehran, and global energy markets under severe strain, the risk of resumed large-scale hostilities is real and growing. Whether diplomacy through Pakistan, Russia, Oman, or other intermediaries can bridge this gap before conditions on the ground deteriorate further remains the defining question of the days ahead.