Welcome Rains Bring Relief to Iran—While Exposing Deep Climate and Governance Vulnerabilities
After months of acute drought, widespread rainfall has affected large parts of Iran since mid-December, driven by a series of unusually intense and closely spaced storm systems.
After months of acute drought, widespread rainfall has affected large parts of Iran since mid-December, driven by a series of unusually intense and closely spaced storm systems. According to Iran’s Water Resources Management Company, average nationwide precipitation has increased by approximately 40 millimeters compared to previous weeks. While this marks a notable improvement, total rainfall remains about 20 percent below Iran’s long-term average, highlighting the depth of the country’s ongoing water crisis.
Over the past 10 days, storm systems have impacted at least 24 provinces, with particularly heavy rainfall concentrated in southern and southwestern regions. Data from the Ministry of Energy indicate that average national rainfall has reached 47 millimeters, representing a 19 percent increase compared to the same period last year—a welcome development, though still insufficient to offset years of accumulated water deficits.
The most intense rainfall was recorded in Hormozgan, Fars, Kerman, and Bushehr provinces, where several stations registered record-breaking 24-hour precipitation totals. In Hormozgan, the Bandar Hosseini station recorded 196 millimeters of rainfall, while stations in Qeshm and near the Esteghlal Dam reported 167 millimeters. Bandar Abbas and Jam followed closely with totals approaching 160 millimeters, levels far exceeding historical norms for this time of year.
Authorities report that the rains have produced short-term but meaningful increases in surface runoff, river levels, snow cover, and dam storage. In Hormozgan alone, reservoir volumes increased by more than 90 million cubic meters, and a small earthen dam in Parsian reached full capacity and overflowed. In Fars province, stored water increased by over 55 million cubic meters. Despite these gains, average dam fill nationwide remains at just 33 percent, a figure approximately 25 percent lower than the same period last year, underscoring how decades of over-extraction and mismanagement have left Iran structurally unable to retain water effectively in a prolonged stretch of declining rainfall patterns.
At the same time, the rainfall has brought significant risks and damage. Meteorological authorities warn that storm activity will continue through at least December 20, with Hormozgan and Kerman facing elevated risks of flash flooding, particularly in areas where soil is already saturated and watersheds are degraded. In multiple provinces, intense downpours have caused localized flooding, infrastructure damage, and disruption to rural livelihoods, with low-income and floodplain communities bearing the greatest burden.
Climate experts inside Iran describe the recent precipitation as rare, highly concentrated, and climatically significant, noting that such events align with broader trends of increasing climate volatility, influenced in part by atmospheric patterns such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Iran is increasingly experiencing long dry periods followed by sudden, extreme rainfall—a pattern that raises flood risks while failing to meaningfully replenish groundwater reserves.
Yet the scale of damage reflects policy failure as much as climatic stress. Deforestation, destruction of watersheds, construction in riverbeds, inadequate drainage infrastructure, weak early-warning systems, and the suppression of independent environmental expertise have left communities dangerously exposed, even during otherwise beneficial rainfall events.
Meteorologists also warn that after a brief lull of roughly ten days, a new cold northern weather system is likely to affect western and northern Iran, bringing heavy rain, snowfall in mountainous areas, sharp temperature drops, and heightened risks of landslides, road closures, and energy disruptions. This rapid shift from warm southern systems to cold northern fronts adds another layer of strain for already overstretched infrastructure and emergency services.
While the recent rains have brought genuine and much-needed relief to parts of Iran, they have not resolved the country’s structural water shortages nor reversed years of environmental degradation. With reservoir levels still critically low and additional extreme weather events likely, the situation underscores that shifting weather patterns don’t remove the need for urgent changes in water governance, land-use policy, disaster preparedness and public accountability.