Precipitation Welcomed in Iran Amid Historic Drought, Deepening Water and Subsidence Crisis
Iran is experiencing one of the most severe drought cycles in decades, as record-low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and accelerating land subsidence converge into a nationwide environmental emergency
Iran is experiencing one of the most severe drought cycles in decades, as record-low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and accelerating land subsidence converge into a nationwide environmental emergency. The crisis touches nearly every province and has pushed the capital, Tehran, into its most precarious water situation in modern memory. Officials warn that without substantial rainfall, the city may face formal water rationing and, in extreme cases, partial evacuation.
In a sign of growing desperation, authorities carried out cloud-seeding operations over Lake Urmia on November 15, spraying clouds with silver iodide and potassium iodide in an effort to trigger precipitation. Lake Urmia—once Iran’s largest lake—is now almost completely dry, replaced by vast salt flats. State media announced that further cloud-seeding missions will continue in East and West Azerbaijan provinces. According to the Iranian Meteorological Organization, rainfall this autumn is 89% below the long-term average, marking the driest fall in fifty years.
Yesterday, rain finally arrived in parts of western Iran, producing localized flooding in several drought-stricken provinces. The Meteorological Organization issued alerts for six western provinces and said rain was expected in 18 out of 31 provinces. Light showers and early snowfall reached northern Tehran. While welcome, experts emphasize the rainfall was far too limited to compensate for years of cumulative shortages.
President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that without meaningful rainfall, Tehran may need to implement water rationing—and could even be forced to evacuate residents from the worst-affected neighborhoods. Tehran relies on five main dams, yet at least one—Lar Dam—is described by operators as “practically dry.” Officials report that dams in Tehran, Markazi, West Azerbaijan, and East Azerbaijan are holding only a few percent of their designed capacity. Authorities have already begun nightly water-pressure reductions, with some areas experiencing hours-long cutoffs. The government is preparing penalties for high-consumption households and businesses.
Public anxiety is rising. Hundreds of residents had gathered at Imamzadeh Saleh in Shemiran last week to pray for rain—images that quickly circulated across Iranian media.
Drought has also strained Iran’s electricity sector. Falling hydropower output has increased reliance on fossil-fuel power plants, worsening air pollution and energy instability. During the summer of 2025, the government closed public offices repeatedly to conserve electricity—closures that disrupted businesses and deepened economic frustrations. Demand for household water-storage tanks has surged, straining supply.
Beyond immediate shortages, Iran faces irreversible environmental damage from decades of groundwater depletion. Experts estimate that more than 70% of Iran’s groundwater reserves have been lost since the 1970s. As aquifers collapse, the land sinks—a process now documented across 56,000 square kilometers (about 3.5% of the country). Subsidence is damaging roads, pipelines, farmlands, and increasingly, Iran’s most iconic heritage sites.
Around Persepolis and Naqsh-e Rostam, the surrounding plains are sinking by several hundred millimeters per year. Cracks have appeared less than 500 meters from the Persepolis platform, and one fissure has reportedly cut directly through the Ka‘ba-ye Zartosht. Similar risks threaten Pasargadae, historic districts of Isfahan and Yazd, and even the Trans-Iranian Railway, which UNESCO added to its World Heritage list in 2021.
Researchers warn that many impacts are irreversible, as compacted aquifers lose their storage capacity permanently. Subsidence in some parts of Tehran reaches up to 25 centimeters per year, while in Rafsanjan, home to major pistachio orchards, an estimated 300 million cubic meters of groundwater storage capacity is lost annually. According to Andrew Pearson of the International Groundwater Assessment Center, Iran is now one of the world’s largest groundwater consumers, with agriculture accounting for roughly 90% of all water use.
As conditions worsen, officials have revived discussion of transporting desalinated Persian Gulf water to Tehran via a 1,000-kilometer pipeline. Energy Minister Abbas Aliabadi admitted the project is extremely costly and not economically viable, but argued that such measures must be considered “when human lives are at stake.” Other officials have called the pipeline the “only reliable long-term solution” for the capital, though financing and environmental challenges remain unresolved.
Iran’s water crisis now reaches far beyond meteorology. It is reshaping daily life, cultural preservation, infrastructure, and economic stability. The combination of historic drought, groundwater depletion, subsidence, declining hydropower capacity, isolated rainfall episodes, and mounting social anxiety has created a complex, multi-layered national emergency. Officials continue urging conservation and promising reforms, yet the scale of the crisis—from evaporating reservoirs to sinking archaeological plains—suggests that the country’s window for corrective action is narrowing rapidly. Without sustained rainfall and fundamental shifts in water management, yesterday’s rain may prove a temporary relief rather than the turning point Iran urgently needs.