Iran’s Post-Protest Crisis: Economic Paralysis, Information Blackout, and the Expanding Human Toll
In the weeks following Iran’s most recent nationwide protests, the country has entered a deeper and more complex phase of crisis defined by economic paralysis.
In the weeks following Iran’s most recent nationwide protests, the country has entered a deeper and more complex phase of crisis — one defined not only by violent repression, but by economic paralysis, a prolonged information blackout, and an expanding human toll that continues to surface despite unprecedented restrictions on reporting.
One of the clearest indicators of systemic strain has been the extended disruption of internet access. Iran’s Minister of Communications has acknowledged that the blackout is inflicting daily losses of approximately 5,000 billion tomans on the overall economy, including around 500 billion tomans per day to the digital economy alone. According to official estimates, nearly 10 million people are employed in digital and internet-dependent sectors, and the average resilience of online businesses is roughly 20 days—a threshold the country is now approaching. Senior figures in Iran’s computer and IT guilds warn that beyond direct financial losses, the shutdown is eroding user trust, international rankings, and accelerating elite and talent migration, with long-term damage likely to far exceed current estimates.
The economic consequences of the blackout have become increasingly visible. Images circulating on social media show traders lining up at Tehran’s Chamber of Commerce to access the internet for just 20 minutes per day, under supervision, after signing formal pledges. Business leaders describe this arrangement as wholly inadequate—barely enough to check email—underscoring how deeply the restrictions have disrupted trade, logistics, and international transactions. For many firms, this has effectively frozen operations, reinforcing uncertainty and caution rather than confidence.
Financial markets have also reacted sharply. Iran’s stock exchange recorded its steepest single-day decline on record, with the main index falling by over 121,000 points, while the equal-weight index dropped by more than 27,000 points. Analysts and officials alike attribute the sustained selloff to a deteriorating post-protest outlook, compounded by growing fears of a U.S. military strike and broader geopolitical escalation. As capital exits the stock market, liquidity has flowed toward foreign currency and gold, further destabilizing the macroeconomic environment.
This external threat perception has become an additional factor keeping the country in a state of heightened uncertainty and alert. Even absent a confirmed decision in Washington, continued discussion of military “options,” deterrence signaling, and the possibility of expanded sanctions or covert disruption have reinforced the sense that Iran’s post-protest crisis is not solely domestic. For households and businesses alike, the risk calculus is shaped not only by inflation and repression, but by the fear that sudden escalation could trigger sharper currency shocks, supply disruptions, and deeper instability—making any calm feel provisional.
At the same time, the government continues to project an image of control and reform. Officials highlight a recent pause in the rial’s depreciation, noting that after spiking to roughly 142,000 tomans per U.S. dollar during the height of the protests, the rate has stabilized around 138,000–140,000 tomans. While authorities frame this as evidence that market “hype” has subsided and policy reforms are taking effect, the level itself reflects a severe erosion of purchasing power, and the calm has coincided with extraordinary coercive measures rather than restored trust.
Indeed, economic stabilization has unfolded alongside an expansion of repression and legal intimidation. Government officials and judicial authorities have openly warned that support for protests—whether through street participation or online expression—may constitute cooperation with hostile foreign states, a charge that carries the potential penalty of full asset confiscation, even in the absence of direct involvement in violence. This framing has significantly widened the scope of vulnerability for business owners, professionals, artists, athletes, and ordinary citizens.
The human cost of the crackdown continues to grow. Accurate nationwide casualty figures remain unavailable, but independent human rights organizations estimate that thousands have been killed or injured since the protests began in mid-January. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) has confirmed at least 5,149 protester deaths as of January 25, while reporting that more than 17,000 additional cases of possible fatalities remain under investigation. Rights groups warn that the final confirmed toll could be several times higher, given the scale of violence, reporting restrictions, and the prolonged internet blackout.
Alongside these independent estimates, Iranian authorities have advanced a sharply different official narrative. According to a statement by Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, government figures place the total number of those killed during the recent protests at 3,117. He claims that 690 of those killed were “terrorists,” while asserting that 2,427 victims were security personnel and civilians.
The stark discrepancy between official and independent figures highlights the opacity surrounding the crackdown and the absence of any single, official and transparent mechanism for verifying casualties. Human rights advocates argue that the government’s broad use of labels such as “terrorist” mirrors past protest crackdowns, where such classifications were used to delegitimize dissent and justify the use of lethal force.
Medical data has provided grim corroboration of the scale of violence. Iran’s leading ophthalmology hospital in Tehran reported that approximately 1,000 patients with severe eye injuries—many caused by shotgun pellets—were treated in the days following the protests’ peak, including dozens who lost vision in both eyes. Hospital staff described overflowing wards and a predominance of young patients, underscoring the lasting physical consequences of violence used by security forces.
Despite official denials, reports of pressure on injured protesters to avoid seeking treatment have persisted. While health officials urge the public to seek medical care and deny coordination with security forces, earlier accounts documented the presence of security agents at hospitals during the protests’ most violent days, reinforcing fear among the wounded.
The violence has also cut across traditionally loyal constituencies. Authorities have confirmed the deaths of seven clerics, damage to dozens of mosques, and casualties among security forces, including members of the Revolutionary Guards and Basij. Intended to underscore the scale of unrest, these acknowledgments instead highlight how deeply the crisis has penetrated Iranian society.
Individual stories have become symbols of national trauma. One widely shared video shows a father searching among rows of body bags at Tehran’s forensic center, repeatedly calling out his son’s name—“Sepehre Baba.” Attempts by state media to recast or neutralize the footage have failed, and the phrase has become shorthand for the protests’ brutality and the anguish of families still searching for answers.
Arrests continue as well. Provincial officials report hundreds of detentions in individual provinces, often describing detainees as “ringleaders” of unrest, while broader figures remain unavailable due to restricted reporting. Senior judicial officials reiterate that those accused of armed action or threats to “national security” will receive no leniency, reinforcing a narrative that increasingly blurs the line between peaceful protest and violent crime.
As the blackout enters its third week, international internet monitoring organizations report that only a handful of pre-approved services remain intermittently accessible, and that brief spikes in connectivity have created a misleading impression of restoration. In practice, Iran remains largely cut off from the global internet.
Taken together, Iran’s post-protest reality is one of fragile stasis sustained by force, under domestic repression and the shadow of potential external escalation. The state has managed to temporarily halt the currency’s free fall and impose surface-level order, but at the cost of deepening economic dysfunction, eroding property rights, paralyzing digital life, and inflicting irreversible human harm. Whether this moment of imposed calm can translate into genuine stability remains deeply uncertain. Without transparency, legal security, restored connectivity, accountability for violence, and a reduction in the perceived risk of sudden external escalation, the current equilibrium appears less like recovery—and more like a pause before the next rupture.