Two official Iranian institutions have released separate reports confirming that inflation in Iran has reached its highest level in years, and possibly decades. The Central Bank of Iran estimates that point-to-point inflation in Bahman stood at 62.2 percent, the highest level recorded since March 2023. Meanwhile, the Statistical Center of Iran reports an even higher figure, stating that point-to-point inflation reached 68.1 percent in Bahman 1404, marking the highest rate since the agency began publishing such data. Although the two figures differ due to methodology, both confirm an unprecedented acceleration in price growth.
Monthly inflation has also surged sharply. The Central Bank estimated monthly inflation in Bahman at 8.4 percent, while the Statistical Center placed it at 9.4 percent — both the highest monthly figures since May 2022, more than three and a half years ago. At that time, the removal of subsidized import currency for certain goods triggered a dramatic price shock. Monthly inflation measures the average increase in prices compared to the previous month, while point-to-point inflation reflects the average rise compared to the same month in the prior year.
According to official data, one of the primary drivers of the inflation spike is the sharp rise in food prices. Average food and beverage costs increased by 11 percent in Dey and 14.7 percent in Bahman alone. Over a twelve-month period, food prices rose by 99 percent, effectively doubling. The Statistical Center reports an even higher annual increase of 105 percent for food prices. Between Dey and Bahman, the price of meat and poultry rose by more than 24 percent, while the cost of edible oils and fats increased by over 50 percent in a single month. A key contributing factor to the recent surge was the decision to halt the allocation of the 28,500-toman subsidized dollar for imports of oilseeds and livestock feed. However, food prices have been rising faster than other goods for most of the past year.
Unlike the inflationary shock of Khordad 1401, which was largely concentrated in food and restaurant prices, the current wave of inflation has spread broadly across sectors. Transportation, communications, household appliances, and various consumer services are now experiencing rapid price increases. This broader pattern suggests that, beyond subsidy removal, sharp currency depreciation and continued liquidity growth are playing significant roles in fueling inflation.
While official inflation represents a national average, the actual inflation experienced by households varies based on income level, location, and consumption patterns. For many families — particularly those with limited incomes — the real cost of living increase may far exceed official figures. The surge in prices has coincided with continued economic stagnation. A multi-week internet shutdown that began in mid-Dey severely disrupted internet-dependent businesses and parts of the broader market. Even after internet services were restored, many businesses have not returned to normal conditions. One small business owner in Isfahan reported that her monthly sales dropped from around 30 million tomans before the shutdown to less than 3 million tomans, forcing her family to consider selling assets to cover rent and loan payments. She noted that for many households, basic food and housing costs have become the primary concern, pushing non-essential purchases out of reach.
With inflation accelerating and purchasing power collapsing, labor representatives are demanding that the minimum wage for next year be doubled. Worker representatives estimate that the monthly cost of living now ranges between 40 to 45 million tomans, arguing that the current minimum wage of approximately 15 million tomans should be increased to at least 30 million tomans per month. Employers, however, warn that such an increase could bankrupt small businesses already struggling under recessionary pressures.
In response to the inflation data, officials have stated that the monthly distribution of one million tomans in commodity vouchers per person has helped improve the purchasing power of the lowest three income deciles. At the same time, they acknowledge that economic pressure has intensified for the remaining seven deciles of society.
The combination of historic inflation levels, currency volatility, liquidity growth, business disruption, and stagnant wages has created one of the most challenging economic environments in recent memory. For millions of Iranians, the convergence of rising prices and declining real incomes has made basic livelihood increasingly difficult, deepening uncertainty about the country’s economic and political trajectory in the months ahead.