Iran Faces the Driest Autumn in 57 Years Amid Escalating Water Crisis

Officials warn that this year’s autumn will bring historic low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and a worsening threat to drinking water in major cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, and Mashhad.

Iran is experiencing the driest and hottest autumn in 57 years, according to experts, deepening the country’s long-running drought and water crisis. Officials warn that this year’s autumn will bring historic low rainfall, shrinking reservoirs, and a worsening threat to drinking water in major cities such as Tehran, Tabriz, and Mashhad.

According to Ahad Vazifeh, head of Iran’s National Center for Climate and Drought Crisis Management, both Iran and the broader Middle East are “on the verge of the driest and warmest autumn in nearly six decades.” He explained that satellite data show the country has entered a weak “La Niña” phase, a climate pattern typically associated with below-average rainfall. “The combination of Pacific Ocean conditions and pressure oscillations over the Indian Ocean has caused widespread precipitation deficits across the Middle East, East Africa, and Iran,” Vazifeh said.

He added that the current oceanic pattern is expected to continue through winter, with its strongest effects appearing in January (Dey month). As a result, “the country is facing an extremely severe drought,” he said, emphasizing that the second half of the year will not compensate for the rainfall shortages of the first half. The forecast shows eastern Iran will remain dry, while the west and central regions may receive near-normal rainfall.

Vazifeh warned that with reservoir and river levels falling sharply, drinking-water supplies in major metropolitan areas are under threat. He urged immediate restrictions on rice cultivation outside the northern provinces of Mazandaran and Gilan, and called on farmers nationwide to prepare for continued drought conditions. He also dismissed popular claims that neighboring Turkey is “stealing Iran’s clouds,” explaining that Iran and Turkey draw moisture from different sources: “Iran’s main moisture comes from the Indian Ocean, while Mediterranean systems passing over Turkey only affect the northwest. Therefore, suggestions of ‘cloud theft’ are scientifically unfounded.”

The drought’s severity is visible in hard data. Water inflow into Iran’s dams has fallen by 39 percent this autumn. As of early November, the country’s 193 reservoirs hold only 17.2 billion cubic meters of water—just 33 percent of total capacity, leaving 67 percent empty. Since the beginning of autumn, only 1.35 billion cubic meters of water have entered dams, compared to 2.19 billion cubic meters during the same period last year.

Beyond environmental damage, the drought’s economic toll is mounting. A recent World Bank report under the “Poverty and Equity” series warns that severe drought and water scarcity are directly threatening Iran’s economy and citizens’ livelihoods. The World Bank estimates that more than 35 percent of Iranians now live below the poverty line, while rising inflation and climate shocks continue to deepen economic hardship. The report also projects slower medium-term growth as water shortages cripple agriculture, energy, and industry.

Meanwhile, Tehran’s ten-million residents face the most critical water situation in six decades. Officials at the Tehran Water and Wastewater Company (Abfa) report that the capital’s surface water reserves are “red and extremely fragile.” Managing Director Mohsen Ardakani said, “We are entering our sixth consecutive drought year. Since the start of the 2025–2026 water year (about a month ago), not a single drop of rain has fallen anywhere in the country.” By contrast, he noted that 20 millimeters of rainfall were recorded at the same time last year and 30 millimeters in the long-term average.

To manage the crisis, the government has been diverting water from the Taleqan Dam to stabilize Tehran’s supply. Ardakani added that, based on meteorological forecasts, rainfall is expected to begin in the second half of December; if precipitation reaches at least last year’s levels, “we will not face a drinking-water shortage.”

Officials say Tehran residents have reduced water use by about 12 percent in the past seven months, but warn that consumption must fall by 20 percent to maintain network stability over the next two months. President Masoud Pezeshkian has personally called on citizens to cut water usage by at least one-fifth.

Despite these efforts, the situation remains dire. Hesam Khosravi, head of the Tehran Water Supply and Treatment Company, announced that water behind Tehran’s dams is now below 11 percent of capacity, calling the capital’s condition “extremely critical.” Similarly, Behzad Parsa, managing director of Tehran Regional Water Company, reported that only 14 million cubic meters of water remain behind Amir Kabir Dam—just 8 percent of its capacity.

Authorities have repeatedly warned of a “Day Zero” scenario—the point when major cities could run out of usable water. So far, 15 provinces have recorded zero rainfall since the start of the new water year, according to Ali Seyedzadeh, head of the National Water and Wastewater Office. He confirmed that 67 percent of national dam capacity remains empty.

Iran’s dependence on hydropower has also worsened the crisis. Reduced water levels have slashed electricity generation, forcing greater reliance on fossil-fuel power plants. During the summer of 2025, government offices in Tehran and other cities were repeatedly closed to conserve energy, drawing complaints from businesses over financial losses.

Tehran’s water network relies on five main dams, yet at least one of them—the Lar Dam—has reportedly dried up completely. Water shortages are also severe in other parts of Iran, from Khorasan to Fars and Sistan-Baluchestan, where low rainfall and rising temperatures have devastated agriculture and drinking supplies.

Vazifeh emphasized that Iran is suffering more acutely than most Middle Eastern nations from climate change, as global warming lengthens dry seasons in the subtropics and shortens the cooler, wetter months. The result, he said, is a structural transformation of Iran’s climate: “The dry season is becoming longer, and the wet season shorter.”

As the country braces for a winter with limited relief, the crisis reflects both a natural climatic shift and decades of mismanaged water policy. Without immediate national-scale reforms in irrigation, consumption, and resource planning, experts warn that Iran’s water emergency could evolve into a full-blown humanitarian and economic disaster.