Less than ten weeks ago, Donald Trump claimed the U.S. and Israel had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program.
And yet, after nearly thirty years of Netanyahu constantly insisting that Iran is always on the brink of a bomb, the crisis is not over.
Today, Europe admitted the truth:
The crisis isn’t over. It’s worse.
Britain, France, and Germany announced they are triggering “snapback” at the UN. That means reinstating sanctions from before the Obama-era nuclear deal — the deal that rolled back and limited Iran’s program. In other words: Europe is burying that deal for good.
How We Got Here
In 2018, Donald Trump tore up the Iran nuclear agreement that had been ratified by the U.S., Europe, China, and Russia at the UN Security Council in 2015. At the time, Iran was making every concession required. And still, the U.S. reimposed crushing sanctions.
At the time, Europe promised to resist. It sent strongly worded letters. It set up special channels to supposedly bypass illegal U.S. sanctions. But Europe’s banks and companies folded, cutting Iran off.
So Iran began clawing back its own concessions, breaking out of the limits of the nuclear deal piece by piece — applying counter-pressure of its own.
“Trump tore up the deal. Europe folded. Iran pushed back.”
The June War
Ultimately, Iran’s program continued to grow and Joe Biden failed to fulfill his promise to return to the deal that Trump had abandoned. When Trump returned to office, he began his own negotiations towards a new deal with Iran. And then Netanyahu attacked.
Netanyahu finally got to cross bombing Iran off his bucket list — and he did it in the middle of U.S.–Iran talks that some believe were close to a breakthrough.
Hundreds of civilians were killed. The U.S. dropped its biggest bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites, but only set the program back by months. The world no longer knows where Iran’s nuclear stockpile is.
Inspectors are gone.
Oversight is gone.
And diplomacy may be gone with it.
“The bombs set Iran back by months. The war may have set diplomacy back forever.”
Europe Caves
Now, Europe has triggered snapback — a mechanism that was built into the agreement to allow any of the UN Security Council powers to unravel it and reimpose the sanctions and demands from prior to the 2015 agreement.
There is now a 30-day window for some kind of agreement to be reached to prolong or avoid snapback. But short of a breakthrough, Europe will have caved completely.
By snapping back sanctions, Europe will erase the Obama deal, but it also threatens to erase any notion of a rules-based order for non-proliferation. And it will fully signed onto the Trump–Netanyahu playbook.
The sanctions themselves are less important. Yes, these are broad, crippling sanctions that have done nothing but crush ordinary Iranians for decades. But because the U.S. was already enforcing these measures unilaterally — and Europe accepted this — the reimposition of these measures at the UN are mostly symbolic.
The difference is this: before, the U.S. was imposing the sanctions illegally, in violation of the nuclear deal and the UN Security Council. Now, the Security Council is poised to endorse Trump and Netanyahu’s decision.
And that symbolism may be devastating for diplomacy. Europe is out as mediator — even if its role had largely been kabuki theater because of its inability to stand up to Washington. The U.S. is marching to Netanyahu’s drum. And there may be no one left to stop the slide to a wider war.
“Europe just signed onto Trump and Netanyahu’s playbook.”
The Choice Ahead
Here’s the truth: Americans don’t want that war.
Not Democrats.
Not Republicans.
Not the president’s own base.
So the question is: Will Washington listen? Can we force Washington to listen? Or will we stumble into Netanyahu’s next war?
The answer depends on us. On whether we can turn public opposition into actual policy. On whether we can push our government to listen to Americans rather than Netanyahu — and to actually negotiate, before it’s too late.
“Americans don’t want another Middle East war. Washington needs to hear it — loud and clear.”
