Europe Activates Snapback Against Iran, Australia Expels Iranian Ambassador, Iranian Women May Soon Obtain Motorcycle Licenses, and More
Read more in this week's edition of Iran Unfiltered
Week of August 25, 2025 | Iran Unfiltered is a digest tracking Iranian politics & society by the National Iranian American Council
Europe Activates Snapback Mechanism Against Iran: Diplomacy, Sanctions, and China’s Decisive Role
Australia Expels Iranian Ambassador Amid Accusations of Antisemitic Attacks
Women in Iran May Soon Gain the Right to Obtain Motorcycle Licenses
Iranian Wrestling Mourns the Loss of Two Legendary Champions
Escalating Terrorist Violence in Sistan and Baluchestan Province
Escalating Political Tensions in Iran: Khamenei’s Defiance, Pezeshkian’s Defense, and Reformist Pushback
Europe Activates Snapback Mechanism Against Iran: Diplomacy, Sanctions, and China’s Decisive Role
On August 28, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany formally initiated the activation of the snapback mechanism under United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231, which could restore six prior UN resolutions on Iran. In a joint statement to the Security Council, the three European powers accused Iran of “deliberate and flagrant violations” of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), citing breaches of enrichment limits, restrictions on heavy water, centrifuge development, and obstruction of IAEA monitoring access. They argued that Iran had systematically undermined the nuclear deal and left them no option but to act. Notably, the move took place well before October, when Russia is set to assume the rotating presidency of the Security Council and could have more procedural tools to hinder or block such a move.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi strongly condemned the move, describing it as “illegal, baseless, and politically motivated.” He urged the Europeans to reconsider before irreparable consequences emerge. Likewise, the Foreign Ministry declared the move a misuse of Resolution 2231, emphasizing that Iran’s nuclear facilities had already suffered major damage from recent US and Israeli strikes. Tehran warned that the decision would seriously undermine cooperation with the IAEA and would be met with “appropriate responses,” including the possibility of a complete halt on inspections.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio applauded the move, stating on X “The E3 – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – initiated a process to reimpose UN sanctions on Iran. Snapback sanctions are a direct response to Iran’s continuing defiance of its nuclear commitments. The United States supports the E3’s decision and urges Iran to engage in serious diplomatic negotiations to resolve the nuclear issue.” The US State Department confirmed that Rubio coordinated with his British, French, and German counterparts in the lead-up to the decision.
Rafael Grossi, Director General of the IAEA, traveled to Washington on Wednesday, where he met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and discussed Iran’s nuclear activities. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar also met Rubio the same day. In an interview on Thursday, Grossi framed the snapback decision as an opportunity for thirty days of negotiations to resolve technical concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program and restore agency access to sites that had been bombed.
Earlier in the week, it was revealed that IAEA inspectors had returned to Iran in order to supervise the changing of fuel at Iran’s nuclear power plant at Bushehr, which was not targeted in the Israeli or American strikes. Broader access, including to facilities that were bombed in the June war, is still the focus of intensive debate and among the demands of European powers. In parliament, lawmakers denounced the return of IAEA inspectors as illegal under the newly passed law mandating suspension of cooperation after the twelve-day war with Israel, though Araghchi clarified that the inspectors’ presence at Bushehr had been approved by the Supreme National Security Council.
Hossein-Ali Haji-Deliqani, deputy head of the Article 90 Commission, announced a triple-urgency bill that would withdraw Iran from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Additional Protocol. The draft calls for Iran to immediately end all cooperation with the IAEA, cease negotiations with the US and Europe, and formally revoke its NPT commitments. The government would also be obliged to report back to parliament within a week on measures taken. It is not yet clear whether it will receive a vote, and whether changes would be made before its consideration. The Guardian Council would still need to review the bill for compliance with Islamic law and the constitution if it is passed.
While NPT withdrawal had been threatened by various administrations, the proposal sparked international attention and domestic debate. Ali-Akbar Salehi, former Foreign Minister and ex-head of the Atomic Energy Organization, warned that withdrawal from the NPT lies solely within the authority of the Supreme Leader due to its religious and governmental dimensions. He cautioned that hasty parliamentary moves or public declarations could be exploited by Iran’s adversaries and further complicate the country’s diplomatic position.
Russia strongly opposed the European move to invoke snapback, calling it destabilizing and legally invalid. According to Kommersant, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused the United Kingdom, Germany, and France of violating UN Security Council Resolution 2231, arguing that they therefore have no legal basis to activate the snapback mechanism. The Ministry stated: “The United States’ withdrawal from the JCPOA in May 2018, coupled with the reinstatement and intensification of sanctions against Iran, as well as the European countries’ failure to lift their unilateral retaliatory measures, represent major breaches of Resolution 2231. States that have themselves violated this resolution cannot legitimately employ the punitive mechanism it contains.”
China also voiced strong opposition and submitted a formal letter to the United Nations, declaring that the European move lacked legal foundation and undermined international trust in multilateral diplomacy. In its letter, Beijing argued that the snapback mechanism was designed as a last resort to safeguard the JCPOA, not as a political weapon to pressure Iran, and that invoking it after years of Western non-compliance was hypocritical. China stressed that the United States, having withdrawn from the JCPOA in 2018, had forfeited any right to invoke related mechanisms, and that European powers, by failing to honor their commitments on sanctions relief and trade, had also lost credibility. The letter called on the Security Council to resist “unilateralist interpretations of Resolution 2231” and to instead create space for renewed negotiations. Beijing underscored that a rush to sanctions would “escalate tensions, harm regional stability, and erode prospects for diplomacy.”
Together with Russia, China circulated a joint draft resolution aimed at extending the JCPOA’s dispute resolution framework and preventing automatic reinstatement of sanctions. Chinese diplomats emphasized that punitive action would only drive Iran further from cooperation with the IAEA and close the door on compromise. Analysts noted that China’s intervention was not only about protecting Iran but also about resisting a Western-driven precedent that could one day be used against Beijing or its partners.
The announcement sparked immediate economic turbulence inside Iran. The rial plunged, with the dollar surpassing 100,000 tomans for the first time since last year. Gold prices hit record highs, with 18-carat gold reaching 8.42 million tomans per gram and new-design coins surpassing 91 million tomans. The euro climbed above 117,000 tomans and the British pound hit 136,000 tomans. Inflation accelerated for the sixth consecutive month, reaching 36.3 percent year-on-year in Mordad. Food prices nearly doubled compared to last year, while utilities such as water, electricity, and fuel rose more than 7 percent in one month. Deputy Minister for Economic Diplomacy Hamid Ghanbari dismissed the impact of the snapback, comparing it to the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, which Iran claims it survived. Analysts, however, warn that renewed UN sanctions would sharply escalate business risk, causing remaining foreign firms and banks to withdraw.
The legal and political debate continues. If the European powers do not withdraw their push for snapback, or the Security Council does not unanimously act to extend the termination of sanctions, the prior resolutions are expected to come back into force. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged the seriousness of the moment but emphasized that the next thirty days remain a diplomatic window to reach a solution.
Tehran insists that its reduction of nuclear commitments was consistent with the JCPOA itself, in response to the US withdrawal and European non-compliance. In a letter to the UN Secretary-General, Araghchi warned that the European step undermines the credibility of the Security Council and sets a dangerous precedent.
Europe’s decision reflects its desire to preserve the snapback tool before October, fearing that otherwise Iran would escape accountability under the JCPOA framework. For Tehran, the choice is whether to absorb the economic and diplomatic costs of renewed sanctions or reengage in diplomacy. The nuclear program, already damaged in war, would require vast resources to rebuild, raising the question of whether it is worth the heavy price of further isolation. Russia and China provide political backing, but their ability to shield Iran is limited. Meanwhile, whispers of possible direct dialogue between Tehran and Washington suggest that under mounting pressure, Iran may yet reconsider its position, though official rhetoric remains defiant.
The European activation of the snapback mechanism thus marks a decisive escalation. Iran has denounced it as illegal and politically motivated, while Russia and China warn of destabilization. The United States and its European allies are aligned in preventing Iranian nuclear advancement, with Israel pressing for tougher measures. Domestically, the decision has already triggered economic shocks, deepened inflation, a collapsing currency, and political disputes over IAEA oversight. With only thirty days before sanctions automatically return, the world faces a critical moment: either a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough or the full restoration of international sanctions, an outcome that could push Iran into deeper isolation at a time of heightened regional fragility.
Ultimately, the effectiveness of the snapback may depend heavily on China. At present, Beijing remains the major buyer of Iranian oil, giving it decisive influence over how severely sanctions will bite. President Masoud Pezeshkian is expected to visit China soon, a trip watched closely for signals of Beijing’s intentions. It remains unclear whether Russia and China, if the Security Council formally reimposes sanctions, will recognize and implement the snapback or continue to reject its legitimacy. Their stance will also matter in the formation of the sanctions oversight committee, where disagreements over membership could obstruct enforcement. In this sense, the final impact of the snapback mechanism rests not only on Western determination but also on whether China and Russia choose to uphold their current opposition or compromise under pressure—a factor that will shape the next stage of Iran’s confrontation with the international community.
Australia Expels Iranian Ambassador Amid Accusations of Antisemitic Attacks
Australia announced on Tuesday, August 26, that it will expel Iran’s ambassador after accusing Tehran of involvement in antisemitic attacks in Sydney and Melbourne. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia’s intelligence and security services had gathered “credible evidence” indicating that the Iranian government was behind at least two arson incidents: the October 20, 2024 attack on Louis Continental Kitchen in Sydney and the December 6, 2024 attack on Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne. No injuries were reported in either case, but Albanese described them as “unusual and dangerous acts of aggression” organized by a foreign state on Australian soil.
The Australian government declared Ahmad Sadeghi, Iran’s ambassador, persona non grata, giving him and three other Iranian diplomats seven days to leave the country. At the same time, Canberra announced that the activities of its own embassy in Tehran would be suspended, with Australian diplomats relocated to a third country for safety. Albanese further stated that Australia intends to designate Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
Iran firmly rejected the allegations. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei denied any Iranian role in the incidents, stressing that “antisemitism has no place in our policy” and calling the accusations “baseless and politically motivated.” He described antisemitism as a “Western and European phenomenon” and claimed Australia’s decision was influenced by domestic politics. Later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a sharply worded statement, even echoing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s criticism of Albanese as a “weak politician,” while insisting that Iran hosts one of the world’s oldest Jewish communities and protects its synagogues.
The Israeli embassy in Canberra welcomed Australia’s move, praising both the expulsion and the planned IRGC terrorist designation as “a strong and important step.” It described Iran as a threat not only to Jews and Israel but also to the “free world, including Australia.”
Despite the escalating confrontation, Foreign Minister Penny Wong said that Canberra will maintain diplomatic relations with Tehran to safeguard Australian interests, though she warned that the country’s consular capacity in Iran is now extremely limited. She urged Australians not to travel to Iran, noting the risks posed by the strained relations.
Australia’s intelligence chief, Michael Burgess, stated that his agency’s “rigorous investigations” revealed links between the attacks and the IRGC, suggesting that Iran had likely directed additional incidents as well. He clarified, however, that there was no evidence the Iranian embassy or its diplomats in Australia were personally involved in the operations.
This is the first time since World War II that Australia has expelled an ambassador from any country. The decision also comes just a week after Netanyahu sent a letter pressing Canberra to act against antisemitic threats, and two weeks after Australia announced it would recognize the State of Palestine in September, a move that had drawn sharp criticism from Israel.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned Australia’s action as “unjustifiable and contrary to the traditions of diplomatic relations,” warning that Tehran reserves the right to take reciprocal measures. The statement also cautioned that the decision could negatively affect the large Iranian community in Australia. Several Western embassies in Tehran, including Germany’s, have already scaled back operations since the 12-day war in June, citing security concerns.
The clash between Australia and Iran now marks a new and unprecedented stage in relations, combining accusations of foreign-directed antisemitic violence with the expulsion of diplomats and the suspension of normal embassy operations. It represents not only a major diplomatic rupture but also a signal that Canberra is prepared to take a harder stance against Iran in alignment with its Western allies.
Women in Iran May Soon Gain the Right to Obtain Motorcycle Licenses
For decades, women in Iran have sought equal rights under the law, particularly in areas of personal freedom, mobility, and public participation. The latest development in this broader struggle for equality is an initiative to legally recognize women’s right to ride motorcycles and obtain licenses.
Iranian women have long challenged restrictions on their basic personal freedoms. This includes the 2022 Woman, Life, Freedom movement, which was sparked by the killing of Mahsa (Jina) Amini after she was arrested for allegedly wearing her hijab improperly. Since the large-scale protests of 2022, Iranian women have been increasingly defying the compulsory hijab law in their daily lives, particularly as the government appears both unwilling and unable to enforce it in a consistent manner. Iranian women have also successfully challenged restrictions against them in other areas, such as gaining the right to enter stadiums, something that was prohibited for many years.
Kazem Delkhosh, Deputy for Parliamentary Affairs in the Iranian presidency, has announced the submission of a bill to parliament aimed at amending motorcycle driving regulations. This bill would revise the note to Article 20 of the Law on Traffic Violations, thereby enabling women to obtain motorcycle licenses. Currently, Article 20 states that all general traffic laws apply to motorcycles. However, this article as currently written specifically grants the authority to issue motorcycle licenses to men only, leaving women excluded from the licensing process. As a result, women who ride motorcycles do so without legal recognition, and insurance companies, in turn, refuse to cover damages from accidents involving unlicensed female riders, creating serious financial risks for all parties involved. Delkhosh emphasized that the absence of legal licensing for women riders not only endangers them but also poses significant risks to other motorists, pedestrians, and society as a whole.
Despite the existing legal barriers, the number of women riding motorcycles in Iranian cities has grown, especially since the nationwide Woman, Life, Freedom protests. Such a trend has extended beyond Tehran; cities such as Yazd have also reported an increase in female riders. Officials, including Esmaeil Dehestani, Deputy Governor of Yazd, have acknowledged that women riding motorcycles without licenses create multiple legal, social, and financial complications. At the same time, senior government representatives, such as Zahra Behrooz Azar, Deputy for Women and Family Affairs, have publicly supported licensing for women, noting that if women are capable of flying airplanes, riding motorcycles should not be an issue.
Riding a motorcycle without a license is classified as a violation of traffic laws. Since the law only mentions “men” in the context of licensing, enforcement against women riders has often been arbitrary and inconsistent. In June 2025, the head of Iran’s Licensing Center reiterated that official parliamentary approval is required before women can legally obtain motorcycle licenses, underscoring that the police cannot act independently without legislative change. In addition, the Guardian Council must also approve the bill after parliament passes it in order for it to officially become law. The government of President Masoud Pezeshkian has expressed openness to this reform, marking a possible turning point. If passed, the proposed amendment will not only resolve this complex legal vacuum but also reflect a broader shift in policy toward recognizing women’s rights in mobility and public life.
While barriers remain, the combination of public demand, visible acts of defiance, and shifting government attitudes suggests that incremental progress is underway. This development aligns with broader trends where women in Iran continue to challenge restrictive laws and push for greater freedom, despite systemic opposition.
Iranian Wrestling Mourns the Loss of Two Legendary Champions
The world of Iranian wrestling has been struck by grief following the loss of two of its most celebrated figures: Emam-Ali Habibi, the country’s first Olympic gold medalist, and Reza Sokhteh-Saraei, one of Iran’s heavyweight greats.
Emam-Ali Habibi, known as the “Tiger of Mazandaran,” passed away at the age of 94 after a long illness. Habibi etched his name in history when he won Iran’s first-ever Olympic gold medal in wrestling at the 1956 Melbourne Games. Competing with a high fever, he defeated the Soviet champion Alimbeg Bestayev in the final. He later added three world championship titles (1959, 1961, 1962) and an Asian Games gold medal in 1958 to his legacy.
Habibi’s story was not confined to the mat: he served as a member of parliament for Babol in the 1960s and even acted in several Iranian films, including Tiger of Mazandaran. Despite his fame, his post-revolution years were marked by political struggles and periods of marginalization. Yet to generations of Iranians, he remained a symbol of perseverance and national pride.
Reza Sokhteh-Saraei, another pillar of Iranian wrestling, passed away on August 25, 2025, at the age of 76 after battling prolonged illness. Born in Golestan Province, Sokhteh-Saraei represented Iran both before and after the 1979 Revolution. He won world silver medals in 1978 (Mexico City) and 1981 (Skopje) in the heavyweight division and also claimed silver at the 1974 Asian Games in Tehran.
Known for his versatility, he competed in both freestyle and Greco-Roman wrestling, even stepping aside in 1986 to allow fellow champion Alireza Soleimani to compete in freestyle, ensuring that Iran secured two golds in the same event. Sokhteh-Saraei was also a three-time flag bearer for Iran’s delegation at the Asian Games (1982, 1986, 1990) and later served as a respected coach. He remained a beloved figure in Iranian sports, remembered for his humility and dedication despite having missed several Olympic and world competitions due to boycotts and political turmoil.
The National Iranian American Council (NIAC), extends deepest condolences to the families of Emam-Ali Habibi and Reza Sokhteh-Saraei, and to the Iranian nation. Their passing marks a profound moment for Iranian wrestling, a sport that has long served as a unifying force for Iranians across generations and political divides. Habibi and Sokhteh-Saraei embodied the qualities of courage, perseverance, and dignity that continue to inspire both athletes and ordinary Iranians worldwide. Their legacy is a reminder of Iran’s rich sporting tradition and its contribution to global wrestling.
Escalating Terrorist Violence in Sistan and Baluchestan Province
Iran’s security forces announced that in a prolonged armed clash lasting several hours in Sistan and Baluchestan Province, six attackers were killed and two others captured. According to a statement by the provincial Intelligence Department, the armed group intended to strike a critical facility in eastern Iran, though the specific target was not disclosed.
Authorities allege that the group was linked to Israel and possibly trained by Mossad, based on evidence recovered at the scene. Officials further stated that the core members of the group were non-Iranian nationals, though their exact identities and countries of origin have not been revealed.
The incident follows a recent surge of violence in the province. Just two days earlier, an armed assault on two police patrol units along the Khash–Iranshahr highway left five Iranian police officers dead. The militant group Jaish al-Adl claimed responsibility, boasting that it had seized the officers’ weapons.
Separately, on Friday night, Majid Fallahpour, a local cleric from the Bazman district, was kidnapped by unidentified armed men. His son, who was present during the abduction, reported that the attackers forced his father into a Peugeot vehicle and transported him to an unknown location. Hadi Ramazani, head of the Sistan and Baluchestan seminary, condemned the act but emphasized that no threats would deter the clergy from their community role. No group has yet claimed responsibility for the abduction.
The region has seen repeated clashes in recent weeks. Two weeks ago in Saravan, one police officer and three militants were killed in another firefight. The Intelligence Department reported that in the most recent confrontation, Iranian forces seized a large cache of advanced weaponry including laser-guided RPG-7s, American-made machine guns, hand grenades, grenade launchers, explosive vests, handheld radios, and large quantities of ammunition.
Sistan and Baluchestan has long been one of Iran’s most volatile provinces, with its porous borders and frequent militant activity making it a persistent security challenge. Over the years, numerous Iranian security personnel have been killed in ambushes and firefights in the province.
A recurring theme in recent attacks has been the poor equipment and vulnerability of Iranian security forces. Footage released by Jaish al-Adl shows lightly armed Iranian police traveling in Samand sedans—vehicles designed for civilian use—being ambushed and killed. By contrast, militants appear heavily armed and well equipped.
Iran has previously announced the production of the Toufan armored MRAP vehicle in 2018, which was later seen deployed with Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces. However, such equipment has not been provided to Iranian forces in Sistan and Baluchestan. This gap has left local security and police units as soft targets for well-prepared militants. The combination of foreign-linked militant groups, porous borders, and under-resourced Iranian forces has turned Sistan and Baluchestan into one of the most dangerous provinces for Iran’s military and police personnel, with no immediate resolution in sight.
Escalating Political Tensions in Iran: Khamenei’s Defiance, Pezeshkian’s Defense, and Reformist Pushback
On Aug 24, 2025, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei delivered a speech at the Imam Khomeini Hosseiniyeh in Tehran during a religious mourning ceremony. He strongly rejected the idea of direct negotiations with the United States, calling such proposals the product of “superficial” thinking. According to Khamenei, U.S. hostility toward Iran is rooted in its desire to “subjugate the Iranian nation,” making reconciliation impossible.
Khamenei praised national unity during the recent 12-day conflict with Israel and warned that Iran’s enemies would attempt to weaken the Islamic Republic by fostering internal division rather than through military force. He urged solidarity between the government and the people, between the armed forces and society, and among all branches of government. In a significant political endorsement, Khamenei expressed firm support for reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian who is facing criticism from conservative hardliners. He called Pezeshkian “hardworking, diligent, and persistent,” urging the public and officials to support his presidency. This backing comes at a time when some lawmakers have called for Pezeshkian’s removal, comparing him to former President Abolhassan Banisadr, who was impeached and dismissed in 1981.
Recently, President Pezeshkian defended his government’s diplomatic efforts with the West, insisting that “negotiation does not mean surrender.” He argued that refusing talks would only lead to repeated conflict, stressing that no decision is made without coordination with the Supreme Leader. However, his remarks triggered sharp backlash in parliament and among conservative factions, leading to accusations of weakness and calls for his political disqualification. This has deepened Iran’s political polarization, with reformist leaders under mounting pressure.
Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, Iran’s Chief Justice, sharply criticized a recent statement by the Reformist Front that called for a reassessment of foreign policy, dialogue with the United States, and even a reduction in the political role of the military. Ejei condemned the declaration as serving “the enemy’s interests” and urged its signatories to retract it. He also hinted at potential legal action, noting that Tehran’s prosecutor would act in line with the law. This reaction drew mixed responses. Hardline media outlets and clerics praised Ejei’s stance, while reformist leaders such as Azar Mansouri defended the Reformist Front’s statement as the “voice of the voiceless” worried about Iran’s future. Political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi also criticized Ejei’s rhetoric, arguing it was unworthy of a judiciary chief and could further inflame Iran’s political climate.
In the aftermath of the conflict with Israel, various political and civil society figures proposed reforms and even constitutional changes. Former Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Mousavi, still under house arrest, called for a referendum on constitutional reform. Other dissidents, such as Abolfazl Ghadyani, argued for moving beyond the political legacy of Ayatollah Khomeini, calling his doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih (Guardianship of the Jurist) the root of Iran’s authoritarianism. Sociologist Saeed Madani, who is currently imprisoned, criticized Iran’s uranium enrichment policy, labeling it a “misguided brick” that undermines national development. He argued that enrichment has neither economic justification nor real deterrent value and urged a fundamental policy shift to avoid renewed international confrontation.
Together with 16 other political and civic figures, Ghadyani and Madani signed a joint statement warning that Iran stands “at a crossroads of the most critical moment in its modern history,” demanding urgent reforms to prevent deeper crises. This joint appeal reflected a growing sense among reformist and civil society voices that the Islamic Republic faces not only external pressures but also deep internal fractures.
Iran’s political environment remains deeply polarized following the 12-day conflict with Israel and the U.S. Khamenei’s uncompromising stance against Washington, coupled with his endorsement of Pezeshkian, reflects a strategy of controlled reform under the Supreme Leader’s oversight. Yet, internal rifts are widening: conservatives are pushing back against Pezeshkian’s reformist tendencies, while reformist figures are calling for systemic changes, including referendums and constitutional revisions. At the same time, the judiciary’s harsh reaction to reformist proposals raises concerns about shrinking political space and limits to free expression.
As the deadline set by Britain, France, and Germany for a new nuclear deal approaches, Iran remains in a precarious state of “neither war nor peace” externally, and “neither change nor stability” internally. This climate of suspension risks deepening public frustration, with reformist leaders warning of long-term economic and social damage if fundamental policy changes are not made. For some analysts, this state of suspension has always been a core doctrine of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear policy: standing at the edge of peaceful nuclear technology while retaining the potential for military capability. While it has served as a deterrent in the past, today it increasingly appears unsustainable.
This uncertain environment has sharpened the tone of domestic critics at a critical juncture for Iran. While Khamenei calls for unity and rejects the possibility of reconciliation with the U.S., while at the same time bolstering Pezeshkian against conservative attacks, the internal political debate grows sharper. With nuclear negotiations hanging in the balance and domestic politics more polarized than ever, Iran’s future course remains highly uncertain, caught between demands for reform and the entrenched power of its ruling establishment.