Escalating War in the Middle East: Rising Oil Prices, Expanding Regional Conflict and Uncertain Political Dynamics Inside Iran
The U.S. and Israeli war on Iran continues to expand across the Middle East, producing growing economic shocks, widening regional involvement, and uncertain political consequences inside Iran. Developments during the sixth day of the conflict suggest that the military confrontation remains intense, with geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian fallout increasing.
U.S. and Israeli forces claim to have carried out extensive bombing of Iran. Residents of cities including in Tehran and Shiraz reported particularly intense bombardments overnight, leaving them terrified and unable to sleep, with fighter jets roaring over the city and intense explosions rocking the city. Communication has been sharply limited by internet shutdowns, and the price of working virtual private networks (VPNs) has soared.
According to U.S. Central Command statements, nearly 200 targets inside Iran have been attacked in the past 72 hours, including missile launch sites and drone infrastructure. U.S. officials also claim that Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by roughly 90 percent and drone attacks by 83 percent compared to the first day of the war, although Iranian missile launches toward Israel have continued intermittently.
Iranian media reports suggest that at least 170 attacks across 113 incidents in 19 provinces were recorded during the past 24 hours, resulting in 79 casualties including both civilians and military personnel. This includes at least nine civilian deaths - including one child - and dozens of civilian injuries. Since the beginning of the war, more than 1,100 civilian deaths have been reported, including nearly 200 children, while hundreds of additional cases remain under verification due to communication disruptions and difficulties accessing affected areas. In many incidents, individuals have been killed or wounded near security-related targets, making it difficult to immediately determine whether individuals are civilians or members of the armed forces.
Israeli officials have also announced that they destroyed what they described as a deep underground command bunker in Tehran, allegedly used by senior Iranian officials following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war. However, the full impact of the strike and any casualties among Iranian leadership remain unclear and have not been independently confirmed.
Many civilian and humanitarian facilities have also been damaged during the bombardment. The World Health Organization has confirmed attacks on at least 13 health facilities in Iran, while Iranian officials report widespread damage to residential areas and civilian infrastructure.
Damage has also been reported to a wide range of infrastructure across Iran Among the targets reportedly struck during the past day were military bases, dual-use infrastructure, government facilities, and civilian sites, including residential buildings, municipal offices, schools, sports complexes and a hostel.
Some facilities that received damage fall under special protection under international humanitarian law, including residential buildings, educational institutions, and sports complexes such as parts of the Azadi stadium complex in Tehran. Israeli officials claim that certain underground facilities in Tehran were used for military command purposes, a frequent justification Israel deployed amid the bombardment of Gaza. However, there is currently no independent evidence confirming that active military units were present inside facilities such as sports stadiums at the time of the attacks, raising questions about the military justification for targeting such locations.
The attack Saturday on a girls’ school in Minab, killing at least 160 children, has continued to receive significant international scrutiny. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has called for a rapid, transparent, and impartial investigation into the incident. U.S. officials have signaled they are investigating the incident, though independent reporting including from the New York Times has outlined significant evidence suggesting that the U.S. conducted the strikes, which also impacted a nearby IRGC-Navy base. Separate reporting has indicated that Artificial Intelligence systems were utilized by the Department of Defense to gather a list of targets inside Iran, which could have relied on outdated data suggesting the school was part of the nearby base. Regardless of the precise circumstances, the strike represents a major loss of young lives and has cast a shadow over the war.
Politically, expectations of widespread unrest inside Iran have not materialized so far. Despite earlier statements by President Trump encouraging Iranian citizens and security forces to rise against the government, there have been no verified signs of large-scale anti-government protests inside Iran. Instead, demonstrations following Friday prayers in several cities were largely composed of government supporters rallying in support of the state and condemning the attacks. Earlier in the week, there was a major mourning procession in Minab marking the tragic loss of so many of the city’s children. Also, in Abdanan - a major hotspot of anti-government protests in January - video showed a large pro-government protest, with demonstrators chanting “Marg Bar America,” or death to America.
This development suggests that Washington’s apparent expectation that the war might trigger a rapid internal uprising against the Iranian government has not yet materialized. Since making his earlier appeals encouraging Iranian military personnel to abandon the government and urging diplomats to seek asylum abroad, President Trump has not repeated similar calls in recent public statements. Today, Trump stated that “[t]here will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!,” suggesting again that Trump himself would choose the next leader of Iran. Trump, in remarks, has not ruled out another religious ruler of Iran or suggested that Iran would need to be a democracy if he gets a chance to influence the outcome. Rather, his bottom line - if he gets a say - is that the next leadership of Iran be friendly to the U.S. and Israel.
At the same time, there are early indications that the Iranian government may be attempting limited political gestures domestically. Several political prisoners have recently been temporarily released or granted prison leave, including Ghorban Behzadian-Nejad, a senior political adviser and former campaign manager for Mir-Hossein Mousavi, and political activist Ali Shakouri-Rad. Observers suggest that such moves may be intended to signal limited domestic flexibility during wartime conditions.
One of the most immediate global consequences has been the sharp surge in energy prices. Oil prices, which had already been rising since the beginning of the war, jumped dramatically after warnings from Gulf energy officials about the possibility of disruptions to regional production. Brent crude surged more than 9 percent to above $91 per barrel, reaching its highest level in nearly two years. Qatar’s energy minister warned that if the conflict escalates further, oil and gas producers across the Persian Gulf could be forced to halt production, a scenario that could severely disrupt global energy markets. He warned that such disruptions could “bring the world’s economies to their knees.” Gasoline and jet fuel prices have begun to surge, already beginning to impact consumers.
The surge in energy prices is already creating pressure on the global economy and could potentially increase political pressure on the United States - particularly on President Donald Trump - to seek an end to the conflict if energy market disruptions deepen. The Persian Gulf region is central to global energy supply, and roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Since the beginning of the war, maritime traffic through the strait has dramatically slowed. Satellite tracking data and shipping reports indicate that hundreds of vessels are currently waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz, avoiding transit through the waterway amid explicit threats of strikes by Iran. Some oil tankers in the region have already been struck. Despite earlier promises by Washington to secure maritime traffic, the United States has so far been unable to fully reopen or normalize shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the continued vulnerability of global energy supply routes.
The war continues to impact the region significantly. Iranian missile and drone attacks have targeted U.S. bases and military infrastructure across several Gulf states, including Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Regional governments report intercepting numerous missiles and drones. Kuwait reports that Iranian reprisals have led to 67 injuries and two deaths in its armed forces.
Initial reporting and videos posted online appeared to show the downing of a fighter jet over Basra in Iraq. Separate reporting indicated that Iraqi police had mobilized to search for a downed pilot. However, U.S. Central Command was quick to post two denials - the first, which was deleted, denied reports of a crash. The second, which remains, denies reports that a jet was shot down. U.S. Central Command also denied reports earlier in the week of a report covered by Israeli media suggesting that a plane was shot down, with the pilot recovered, in northwestern Iran. The situation remains murky with no firm evidence available to substantiate claims.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated sharply on Israel’s northern front. Hezbollah has launched dozens of rockets toward Israel, while Israel has carried out large-scale airstrikes in southern Beirut and other parts of Lebanon. Lebanese authorities report more than 200 people killed and hundreds injured since the latest Israeli operations began.
Another potentially destabilizing dimension of the conflict involves Kurdish militant groups based in northern Iraq. Iranian officials have warned that if Kurdish armed groups attempt to launch attacks into Iranian territory, Iran will respond by targeting infrastructure across the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. Some Kurdish opposition figures have stated that while coordination between several Kurdish groups is ongoing, any military action would require external support and air protection, including a potential no-fly zone. Iranian forces have already conducted drone and missile strikes against suspected militant bases in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The First Lady of Iraq, Shanaz Ibrahim Ahmed, also issued a statement calling on international actors to “Leave the Kurds alone,” emphasizing that “We are not guns for hire,” rejecting the potential exploitation of the community by geopolitical powers. The situation is further complicated by statements from Iraqi militia groups affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Forces (Hashd al-Shaabi), which have warned that they would fight Kurdish forces if they attempt to use Iraqi territory as a staging ground for attacks against Iran. These dynamics risk opening yet another front in an already expanding and destabilizing regional conflict.
Diplomatic prospects for ending the war remain uncertain. President Trump has stated that no agreement will be reached unless Iran accepts unconditional surrender, while Iranian officials insist that they have neither requested a ceasefire nor initiated negotiations with Washington. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has nevertheless acknowledged that several countries have begun attempts at mediation.
As the war enters its second week, the war remains a broader regional confrontation with significant economic, humanitarian, and political consequences. Rising energy prices, the disruption of global shipping routes, expanding military exchanges across multiple countries, and the absence of meaningful diplomatic engagement all suggest that the crisis could continue to deepen in the coming days.