Do tough times create strong diplomats? Amid the ongoing deterioration of international law and the so-called “rules-based international order, the pretty obvious answer appears to be no. The era of consequential diplomats working to avert conflict and defend, to some extent, the foundations of international law appears to be over. And U.S. security and the international system are all the poorer for it.
Today’s announcement that France, Germany and the United Kingdom (the so-called E3) will trigger “snapback” against Iran underscores Europe’s slide into increasing diplomatic irrelevance. It was just a little over a decade ago that Europe proved its continuing importance as a key interlocutor between the U.S. and Iran, bridging gaps and ultimately helping to strike a deal that averted war and further nuclear proliferation. Yet today, those same powers - under a new generation of diplomats - are exploiting a clause from that very same negotiation not to revive diplomatic possibilities with Iran in the wake of a destabilizing war, but to drive a stake through them and make a revival of war much more likely.
The move - mimicking the hardline approach of the Americans - will simply push Europe further into irrelevance. If Iran is going to negotiate moving forward, it will do so directly with the Americans rather than the junior partners.
Those European diplomats who struck the 2015 bargain, like Catherine Ashton and Frederica Mogherini, and those who sought to save it, like Josep Borrell and Enrique Mora, had far more foresight than those who have overseen the current mishandling of the Iran file.
Perhaps more concerning, though, is the incredibly thin diplomatic bench in the global superpower of the United States. While American foreign policy was not without reproach in earlier diplomatic eras, of course, there are precious few who now seem capable and willing to use diplomacy to secure the American interest and uphold the international system. Whereas Trump’s foreign policy hands have tended to be a mix of neoconservative apparatchiks and sycophantic politicians and bureaucrats, the senior officials Biden entrusted with the key foreign policy decisions throughout his presidency proved they were cut from the same cloth.
The Biden foreign policy team was steered by events, and ended up as a seemingly-reluctant co-belligerent in Israel’s military campaigns to reshape the Middle East by force after the October 7th, 2023 attacks, international law be damned. In the process, they tied the U.S. inexorably to Israel’s ongoing genocide in Gaza, and positioned Israel to begin preparing for its war on Iran - a conflict that is likely not yet over.
An episode at the end of the Biden administration underscores how little sway, energy and imagination Biden’s foreign policy team was bringing to the table. Biden, along with his National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Middle East adviser Brett McGurk and Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer joined a call trying to examine whether they could have taken any different step in the previous months that could have led to a different result. As reported by The Atlantic, “Over the course of two hours, the group batted ideas back and forth. In the end, they threw up their hands. There was no magical act of diplomacy, no brilliant flourish of creative statecraft that they could suddenly deploy.” Now, perhaps in an effort to recuperate his image, Sullivan has found just such a creative idea - withholding the transfer of arms to Israel, as called for by pro-peace Americans including key constituencies in the Democratic base. However, Sullivan only seems to have thought of the idea after he has been far removed from the corridors of power.
So poor was the Biden legacy on foreign policy that Steve Witkoff, a real estate mogul with no background in diplomacy, seemed like he could be a breath of fresh air at the outset of Trump’s second term. Perhaps someone not steeped in rigid Washington orthodoxy could help the President achieve his vision of peace. Yet hopes for new diplomatic flexibility and a commitment to peace have been dealt severe blows in the months since, accentuated by Israel bombing Iran in June a mere two days before Witkoff was set to depart for then-ongoing negotiations with the Iranians.
This lack of diplomatic leadership is likely both a consequence of, and contributor to, the breakdown of the international order that has been accelerating in recent years. Unless it is arrested with new and capable leadership, both American security and international law will continue to deteriorate.