Civilian Casualties and Housing Damage in Iran
The Human Cost of the First 40 Days of War with Iran in 2026
Below is a preview of our Iran Unfiltered special report on damage from the war, which you can see in full on the NIAC website.
Executive Summary
The 2026 Iran War caused a civilian catastrophe fully corroborated by independent international organizations. Civilian death tolls range between 1,030 and 2,362 — with the true figure difficult to determine given Iran’s internet blackout, restricted journalist access, and the fact that approximately 40% of bodies were initially unidentifiable due to the nature of munitions used. At least 254 to 376 children are confirmed among the dead, and over 26,500 people were injured across the 40 days.
“In practice, the war has destroyed the lives and livelihoods of ordinary citizens with little influence over the Islamic Republic’s policies. Those supposedly meant to benefit from the war ended up bearing its heaviest human and economic costs.”
— Hadi Kahalzadeh, welfare economist; Non-Resident Fellow, Quincy Institute. Responsible Statecraft, April 15, 2026
The Minab school strike — killing 156 people including 120 schoolchildren on the opening day of the war, confirmed by the local prosecutor and independently verified by satellite imagery, Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, the UN, and major news organizations — stands as the single most documented atrocity of the conflict and has prompted formal war crimes investigations. The cumulative pattern of incidents — including the Lamerd sports hall, the Niloofar Square killings, and the double-tap Karaj bridge strike — reflects a war in which civilian concentrations were repeatedly struck.
On housing, the Red Crescent’s final confirmed total of 125,630 civilian units damaged — including 100,000 residential units — is the most authoritative national figure available and has been cited directly by UN OCHA in its humanitarian updates. Tehran bore the largest single-city burden with 46,623 residential units damaged and 649 recorded impact points, while the western border provinces of Kermanshah, Kurdistan, and Ilam recorded the most severe damage outside the capital. The scale of destruction was approximately 15 times greater than the damage caused by the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, and in total magnitude is broadly comparable to the residential damage inflicted over the entire eight-year Iran-Iraq War.
The most scientifically independent measure — the Oregon State University satellite assessment of at least 7,645 buildings with confirmed structural damage — provides the externally verified scientific floor. The gap between this figure and the Red Crescent’s 125,630 units reflects fundamentally different definitions of damage: the satellite methodology captures only significant structural change, while the ground registration counts any impact including broken windows and cracked walls. The government’s own categorisation confirms that the vast majority of the 125,630 units fall into the minor damage category — but that does not make the smaller number more “true.” Both figures document real harm to real people’s homes.
The displacement of 3.2 million Iranians — 60% of them women and children — is confirmed by both OCHA and UNHCR, and represents one of the largest internal displacement events in Iranian history since the Iran-Iraq War. Taken together, the documented human and material costs of this conflict place it among the most destructive episodes of civilian harm in the modern Middle East.
1.1 Total Death Toll — Cross-Source Verification
Four independent sources provide the primary death counts. Their convergence across distinct methodologies makes the civilian casualty figures among the most robustly documented of the conflict.
Iranian Ministry of Health / Al Jazeera tracker (May 5, 2026): At least 3,468 people were killed in US-Israeli attacks on Iran between February 28 and April 8, 2026, according to Iran’s Ministry of Health. The victims were aged between eight months and 88 years and included seven infants, 376 children, and 496 women. More than 26,500 people were injured, including at least 4,000 women and 1,621 children.
EYEWITNESS ACCOUNT — RED CRESCENT RELIEF WORKER, TEHRAN
“I saw a man standing on the rubble. Shortly after, his wife’s body was found near the building. The intensity of the strike had made identification of the body extremely difficult. In one moment, that man had lost everything — his home was destroyed and not a single member of his family remained by his side.”
— Elias Nazpour, journalist and relief worker, Iranian Red Crescent Society (Khorasan Razavi unit). Source: Fararu / Mehr News Agency, May 2026
HRANA — Human Rights Activists in Iran (US-based NGO): As of April 7, HRANA documented 3,636 total deaths in Iran due to strikes, including 1,701 civilians (among them at least 254 children), 1,221 military personnel, and 714 unclassified. HRANA noted it is believed that military casualties are significantly higher than reported, as confirmations depend on government data obscured due to the sensitive nature of military information.
Hengaw Organization for Human Rights (Norway-based NGO): At least 7,650 people were killed during the 40-day phase of the war, of whom 1,030 — equivalent to 13.5% — were civilians, and at least 6,620 were military personnel. Hengaw’s significantly higher total reflects its deeper documentation of military casualties, particularly across Kurdish provinces where it has strong field networks.
UN OCHA Humanitarian Update No. 3 (April 16): As of 7 April, the Ministry of Health and Medical Education reported at least 2,362 civilian deaths and more than 32,314 injuries nationwide, with the highest casualties recorded in Tehran, Hormozgan, and Isfahan.
By contrast, this civilian death range is higher than the 1,030 cited by Hengaw and 1,701 confirmed civilian dead cited by HRANA. However, a death toll of 2,362 in the February 28 - April 8 phase of the war is certainly plausible and perhaps even likely given documentation barriers. The total death toll (civilian + military combined) ranges from 3,375–7,650, depending on sources.
Read the full report on the NIAC website…