After Iran Ceasefire, Two Visions for Peace Need to be Forged
President Trump just pivoted from threatening genocide against Iran to striking a two week ceasefire, allowing for the possibility of a broader peace.
Clearly, the war was a disaster: militarily, economically and politically. This wasn’t the easy regime change war the President had been sold on the heels of the Maduro operation. Weeks into the war, Iran was still shooting down planes over Iranian skies, and many U.S. bases in the region were uninhabitable amid daily missile and drone fire. With blowback mounting and no sign of an end in sight, President Trump cut bait and pivoted, forcing through a ceasefire that could - despite significant challenges - lead to a broader peace.
What is most firm is that there is a two week ceasefire in place for now, despite immediate challenges to it, during which a broader peace will need to be negotiated. The U.S., Iran and Israel are not supposed to attack each other amid this time. As attacks on Iran end, Iran is supposed to ease the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with ships needing to coordinate with the Iran armed forces in order to secure passage. The arrangement has already calmed energy markets and could restore a degree of normalcy to traffic through the energy chokepoint.
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The most immediate threat to the ceasefire is apparent violations of the spirit, and potentially the letter, of the ceasefire pact. Israel, apparently caught off guard by Trump’s pivot to a ceasefire, initiated a major attack in Lebanon by bombing a hundred targets across the country, including in Beirut. Likewise, the United Arab Emirates appears to have bombed Iranian refineries on Siri and Lavan islands in the Persian Gulf, prompting major Iranian retaliation against the UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait. Already, Iran has warned that it may end its compliance with the ceasefire if Israeli attacks on Lebanon continue. President Trump will likely have to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu from further escalations that risk undermining the fragile opening for peace.
The other major challenge to a ceasefire that will play out in the days to come is whether the U.S. and Iran can craft a broader peace. Right now, there is no deal, but rather two lists of goals from both the U.S. and Iran that will serve as the basis for a deal.
President Trump has signaled that a ten point proposal from Iran can serve as “a workable basis on which to negotiate.” While there are a few different iterations of this plan, it contains a non-aggression pact and guarantees against the war restarting, significant sanctions lifting and continued Iranian influence over the Strait of Hormuz, with tolling of cargo ships set to fund reconstruction.
Likewise, in announcing Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi referenced the fifteen point plan put forward by the U.S. while noting President Trump’s “acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as the basis for negotiations.” The 15 point plan put forward by the U.S. includes significant nuclear steps, including a halt to uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and a removal of Iran’s stockpile of higher enriched uranium, which is believed to have been buried by U.S. strikes in the June war. President Trump referenced these demands in a post to Truth Social this morning, stating “There will be no enrichment of Uranium in Iran, and the United States, working with Iran, will dig up and remove all of the deeply buried (B-2 Bombers) Nuclear “Dust.” He continued, “Many of the 15 points have already been agreed to.”
The hard diplomatic work now begins to take two visions for the peace deal that have little to no overlap and forge an acceptable and durable agreement. U.S. and Iranian interlocutors, potentially including Vice President JD Vance and Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, may convene in Islamabad, Pakistan to negotiate it as soon as Friday. Any one of the 25 points that could guide talks could prove to be a major sticking point.
Yet, there is reason to believe that a peace can be forged, precisely because the war has proven disastrous. What is most important now is that would-be saboteurs - including Israel and pro-war voices in Congress - cannot be allowed to obstruct this shift away from war and toward a durable peace. This process may be chaotic, tentative and even faulty, but it is far preferable to a war that was sapping American power and destroying the lives of innocents in Iran and across the region. Those who opposed this war should now root for negotiations to succeed.